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How to judge an explanation

Look for a clear claim, evidence that actually supports it, a visible chain of reasoning, and an honest account of what remains unknown.

Start with the exact claim

“This could raise bills” and “this has raised bills” are different claims. Identify what happened, what the author infers and what they are predicting. Check the date and the place: a statement about one utility or one month may not describe yours.

Open the source behind the sentence

Check who produced the information, how they know it and whether it supports the specific claim. A company announcement can establish what the company says it plans to do. It cannot, by itself, prove the plan will succeed.

The Open University’s PROMPT framework offers a structured way to examine a source’s relevance, methods, origins, timing and perspective. A respected source still needs to be relevant to the question you are asking.

Follow each step

Ask how the stated cause could produce the claimed result. If an explanation jumps from “demand is growing” to “your costs will rise,” the missing steps may include supply, contracts and pricing rules. Naming those conditions is more useful than drawing an arrow and treating the result as settled.

Try this question

What would I need to know before this conclusion applies to me?

In our electricity example: your utility’s approved rates, the project agreement and the regulator’s cost-allocation decision. Without those, a precise household cost would be guesswork.

Look for a credible alternative

Could another factor explain the same observation? More than one cause can contribute to an event. An alternative earns attention when it fits the facts and has supporting evidence, not simply because someone can imagine it. Ask what observation would help distinguish the explanations.

Ask what would change the answer

A useful explanation names its limits. Missing documents, uncertain demand or a pending decision can matter more than a confident final sentence. Ask what would change the conclusion: a different contract term, a revised measurement or a new official decision.

That does not mean every conclusion is equally uncertain. Confidence should follow the strength and relevance of the evidence.

A quick check before you share

This is WorldLens’s reading guide, not a score that certifies an article as true. Use it to find the next question worth asking. Our approach page explains how these ideas shape the product we are building.